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Thursday, August 4, 2011

Fwd: | 07.13.11 | Netflix price hike has little downside



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Subject: | 07.13.11 | Netflix price hike has little downside
Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2011 12:41:01 -0400 (EDT)
From: FierceOnlineVideo <editors@fierceonlinevideo.com>
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July 13, 2011

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Editor's corner:
Netflix's price hike has little downside

Today's Top Stories:
1. Netflix bumps prices nearly 60%, sets sights on streaming only
2. Facebook lands VOD episodes of 'Doctor Who' and 'Top Gear'
3. Prospect Park looks at cancelled soap operas to anchor new online TV network
4. Report: Netflix not interested in buying Hulu
5. Study says OTT service market to reach $16.4B by 2016, pinch pay-TV operators

Spotlight:
Apple eyes $100 billion business opportunity: Connected TV, home automation

Also Noted:
Microsoft looks to expand VOD; LoveFilm grows staff, eyes expansion in Europe Much more...

News From The Fierce Network:
1. APAC to drive IPTV growth through 2016, to 155M global subscribers
2. Netflix's 'anti-competition' charges against telcos a lot of hooey
3. Research points to minimal STB market growth

Hulu adds subs, makes money, struggles to find the right buyer
Remember Hulu CEO Jason Kilar's prediction that the company's subscription service, Hulu Plus, would top 1 million users by the end of 2011? Well, if you're willing to fudge the numbers, just a little, it's a done deal. Kilar, in a blog post last week, said Hulu Plus currently has 875,000 paying subscribers and, when you count those on a trial membership, it tops the million-user mark. Even if you're a stickler for detail, Kilar said the $7.99 a month service will reach the milestone by summer's end. The company is for sale, and there are a number of potential buyers. The question for most, though, is: "Is it worth its $2 billion valuation?" Click here to read more.


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This eBook from FierceOnlineVideo, will look at which segment stands to benefit the most from this new delivery vehicle, and which stands to lose, as the nascent video revolution marches forward.Click here to download today.


Editor's Corner

Netflix's price hike has little downside

By Jim O'Neill Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Jim O'Neil


Just how popular is Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX)? Well, a little less so this morning among some customers who were infuriated by the company's price hike for a combined streaming/DVD-by-mail service that it announced yesterday.

The nearly 60 percent bump to $15.98 a month from $9.99 produced a flood of complaints on the company's website with many customers vowing to quit the service.

A number of pundits also predicted Netflix would see huge subscriber losses as a result of the move. A BNET article proclaimed, "Thanks to Hollywood, Netflix is pricing itself out of business;" CNET said, "Angry Netflix subscribers must ask who has the better deal;" and PCMag asked, "Is Netflix doomed?"

Less vocal was the audience that has helped to nearly triple the number of subscribers since Netflix began offering movies online in late 2008 when the service counted fewer than 9 million members. Their cost per month just dropped $2 to $7.99, the same price as Hulu Plus, so they have no reason to complain.

Also without reason to complain is Wall Street, which continued to back what many have seen as an over-valued stock even as its price has escalated nearly $196, some 66 percent, in the past year; Netflix yesterday traded above $300 per share for the second day in a row and closed at $291.27.

Investors see increased value in Netflix because the new pricing plan will mean lower costs and potential for higher revenues as it sheds expensive DVD-by-mail customers. And that, of course, means it potentially will have more cash to pay the higher digital licensing fees it expects to see in the coming year.

Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said he expects Netflix's content costs to balloon from $180 million in 2010 to $1.98 billion in 2012.

Separating its streaming customers from its DVD-by-mail customers also could help Netflix regain streaming rights to the library of Sony content from Starz that it lost access to last month. Sony pulled their titles back because of a clause in its contract that limited the number of people who could access movies online.

The pricing change also is likely to bring a smile to faces in Hollywood, who see the move as an opening for video-on-demand services that have higher earnings potentials for them, but which have been essentially languishing unused as consumers opted for the lower-priced Netflix offering.

Also in line to see some benefits from disgruntled consumers? Dish Network's Blockbuster Video stores, Redbox--which offers $1 rentals from thousands of kiosks across the country--Amazon and VOD services like iTunes and Vudu that now may appear as bargains.

The big question, of course, is, "Will Netflix really be hurt by the price hike and the adverse publicity it has generated?"

Despite the angry rhetoric and predictions of doom, I don't think so.

For most subscribers, at least the 60-odd percent who've joined since Netflix started offering streaming video, forcing a choice of either/or for $7.99 and a combo for $15.98 may simply mean opting for the cheaper plan. For the others? Well, just look to the world of pay TV for guidance there. Despite relentless price hikes, it's still going strong.

In Netflix's case there is, after all, strength in numbers. The outcries of 10,000 or even 20,000 angry customers can sound pretty muted amid the happy murmuring of nearly 24 million contented ones.

Its $7.99 price, to a younger audience that views snailmail as a place where credit card offers and other junk mail accumulates to be thrown out once a month, now looks like an even better deal. Combine it with a $7.99 Hulu Plus subscription and life, for $15.98 a month, has just taken a turn for the better.--Jim

Read more about: Hulu, Netflix, Subscriber Numbers

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Today's Top Stories

1. Netflix bumps prices nearly 60%, sets sights on streaming only

By Jim O'Neill Comment | Forward | < a href="http://links.mkt1985.com/ctt?kn=104&ms=MzU0MjQzNgS2&r=MjM2NzI3MjAzMjcS1&b=0&j=MTExNjc2NDQzS0&mt=1&rt=0" name="api_addthis_com_oexchange_s31EczysZDuJq2qreNCFXg" >Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

With more than 23 million customers, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) apparently isn't too concerned about losing some of them. The company decided Tuesday to bump its price for a combined streaming and DVD-by-mail service by nearly 60 percent to $15.98.

It also began offering a streaming-only plan or DVD-by-mail only plan for $7.99, in line with its streaming only offering in Canada, which is the same price as Hulu charges for its Hulu Plus premium service.

The move immediately drew howls of protest from a number of customers and raised concern among pundits who questioned the move and predicted subscriber erosion.

Wall Street, however, apparently liked the move, rewarding Netflix with its second consecutive day trading above $300 per share. The stock closed, however, at $291.27.

The move was nonetheless somewhat expected, with CEO Reed Hastings in the past saying that Netflix was far more interested in streaming content to consumers than in sending it through the mail, a delivery method that, because of postage cost increases and the expense of maintaining staffed mail drops centers, has become more expensive.

A Netflix spokesman said the company expects to lose some subscribers because of the price increase but the company still believes the combined offering, at $15.98, was "a terrific value."

Janney Capital Markets analyst Tony Wible said some 80 percent of Netflix customers currently use a combination plan and will be affected by the price change.

For more:
- see this Wall Street Journal article

Related articles:
Netflix's 'anti-competition' charges against telcos a lot of hooey
Netflix content acquisition costs to soar in 2012
Report: Netflix not interested in buying Hulu
Netflix set to launch in 43 Latin American, Caribbean countries this year
Netflix makes video quality adjustment
Netflix likely to see more churn unless new deal for Sony films comes soon
Netflix, younger audience keeps cord-cutting debate hot
Netflix content licensing strategy puts it in a class by itself

Read more about: Streaming Video, Netflix, Subscriber Numbers
back to top


2. Facebook lands VOD episodes of 'Doctor Who' and 'Top Gear'

By Jim O'Neill Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Facebook users have been inundated with VOD offerings of late, as Hollywood looks longingly at the over 750 million active users the site has, many of them Baby Boomers and other adults who've adopted the technology as their own.

Now, Doctor Who will be available to users in exchange for Facebook credits (available in any online game and on the payments tab in Facebook). Another fan favorite, Top Gear, which already has 12 million Facebook fans, also will soon be available on the site, according to published reports.

It is the first time a broadcaster, in this case, the BBC, has looked to Facebook to deliver programming as VOD. Episodes will be available for 48 hours and will cost 15 Facebook credits.

For more:
- see this Telegraph article

Related articles:
Warner Bros. expands Facebook video on demand movie trial, offers 5 new titles
Play ball! MLB giving Facebook a swing at live streaming games
Report says Netflix working with Facebook on integration that could push international play
Facebook as a rival to Netflix? Analysts say it could be 'the' threat
Warner Bros. teams with Facebook for VOD movie play

Read more about: Video On Demand, facebook, Doctor Who, Top Gear
back to top


3. Prospect Park looks at cancelled soap operas to anchor new online TV network

By Jim O'Neill Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Soap opera fans may be dwindling in number, but at least one production company thinks that the fan base and advertiser support is sound enough to take some established properties to the Web.

Prospect Park as licensed All My Children and One Life to Live from ABC, which planned to cancel the shows this year, and said it will produce new episodes for Web consumption, as well as put older episodes online. The deal will net millions in royalties for Disney, which owns ABC, and is said to run for over a decade.

"We believe that by continuing to produce the shows in their current hour format and with the same quality, viewers will follow the show to our new, online network," said Prospect Park heads Rich Frank and Jeff Kwatinetz.

Prospect Park hasn't cemented any deals yet with actors or writers and is weighing how it plans to monetize the shows. The Wall Street Journal said Prospect Park is weighing a subscription model, but also is looking at ad sales, product-placement deals and sponsorships.

The company is counting on the shows to be cornerstones for a new network.

For more:
- see this WSJ article
- see this EOnline article

Read more about: Online Video, Disney, Prospect Park
back to top


4. Report: Netflix not interested in buying Hulu

By Jim O'Neill Comment | Forward | < a href="http://links.mkt1985.com/ctt?kn=73&ms=MzU0MjQzNgS2&r=MjM2NzI3MjAzMjcS1&b=0&j=MTExNjc2NDQzS0&mt=1&rt=0" name="api_addthis_com_oexchange_qD4UwoatSVs7STKsM7SNw" >Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Buyers potentially interested in Hulu will begin looking at the books in the next couple of weeks, but Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), the company's closest rival, isn't likely to be one of them, according to a published report.

Interested parties have been kicking the tires of the company, which earlier this month began to actively court buyers. Now, said the Wall Street Journal, they'll start doing a deeper dive on the books as owners News Corp., Disney and Comcast's NBCUniversal look to execute their exit strategy.

The Journal, however, said Netflix, which is looking to stream the kind of content Hulu has to offer, won't be taking that next step. It added that Hulu's ownership wasn't keen on selling to Netflix anyway, as they want to continue selling content to as many outlets as possible and consolidating two of their biggest customers would be counterproductive.

That's likely good news to Hollywood studios worried that a merger of the two companies would have produced a more powerful entity. Netflix currently is estimated to have more than 23 million subscribers, making it the largest subscription service in the U.S.

Meanwhile, at least one analyst expects Netflix's content acquisition costs to increase tenfold by 2012, one more reason the company may not be interested in the sale.

For more:
- see this WSJ article

Related articles:
Disney CEO confirms owners 'committed to selling' Hulu
Pairing Google with Hulu gives studios a strong alternative to Netflix
Following on Netflix's heels, Hulu closes deal to stream Miramax films

Read more about: Hulu, Streaming Video, Netflix
back to top


5. Study says OTT service market to reach $16.4B by 2016, pinch pay-TV operators

By Jim O'Neill Comment | Forward | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

Earlier this year, Shane O'Neill, Liberty Global's chief strategy officer, called over-the-top services "an existential threat" to cable operators during the told Cable Congress in Lucerne.

"We need to innovate much more quickly than we have traditionally done," he said. "If we don't, OTT could be a big, big thorn in our side."

That thorn has grown, according to a new report from IMS Research that predicts a world service OTT market of $16.4 billion by 2016, with a CAGR of 32 percent.

And it predicts the growth will be led by subscription services like Netflix and Hulu Plus, which will account fro the largest share of OTT service revenues through 2016.

Anna Hunt, CE principal analyst at IMS Research, said Netflix's just-announced expansion into Latin America and the Caribbean "illustrates the type of strategic initiatives we can expect from leading local OTT service providers" as they look to expand their market.

"New deals for Spanish and Portuguese language content create a potential for Netflix to expand its market reach to the vast population of the whole Latin American region, as well as millions of Spanish speakers living in the U.S.," she said.

It's not just subscription services that will see big gains in the next five years, Hunt said. She expects brick and mortar retailers like Walmart and Best Buy, as well as Hollywood studios and other content owners to benefit as well, as pay-per-view transaction revenues grow at a faster pace. IMS Research projects that retailers will grow their share of the OTT market, accounting for 13 percent of world OTT service revenues in 2016.

For more:
- see this release

Free eBook: The evolution of the OTT space and what it means to the industry

Related articles:
Evolving OTT delivery launching an online video revolution
North American OTT revenues to reach $20B in 2016, ad revenues to soar

Read more about: ott delivery, IMS Research, Trends & Metrics
back to top


Also Noted

TODAY'S SPOTLIGHT... Apple eyes $100 billion business opportunity: Connected TV, home automation

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has its eye set on a new business that could add $100 billion to its market cap: A connected Apple TV platform that ties into home automation. UBS analyst Maynard Um, in a research note, predicted that Apple is poised to take advantage of a new chip from Intel that is designed specifically for TVs and is set to debut in mid-2012. "We believe Apple will have to build out its own content ecosystem such that a set made by Apple could be differentiated enough from a content perspective to potentially lead to ‘cord-cutting,'" Um said. He also said Apple, à la Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), would offer professiona l installation by its own "Genius Squad." Article

More news from Fierce:

> Recent moves by both Microsoft and Facebook show that both remain covetous of the video business and are making moves to grab slices of the on-demand market. Reports are swirling that Microsoft will be significantly expanding its video-on-demand service on its Xbox 360 game console. Article

> Pay-TV operators may glimpse a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel as they struggle to retain subscribers, and, for once, it's not the Netflix train bearing down on them. Netflix, often blamed for cable operators' steady subscriber losses and viewed as a threat by IPTV operators, is looking at some hefty content cost increases in the next two years. Article

> Global software security and media technology company Irdeto acquired BD+ technology for Blu-ray from Rovi Corp., allowing it to give Hollywood studios a more robust solution for protecting high-value Blu-ray movie titles from the threat of digital piracy and lost revenues. Article

> Amazon's European online streaming service and DVD retailer Lovefilm is increasing its British workforce by 20 percent over the next three months as it looks to expand its digital service in the UK and across Europe, where it currently operates in Germany, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Article

> French connected home technology specialist Netgem has seen first half revenues from its international business increase 58 percent year-on-year. Article

> Macau-based Ignite Media Group will supply two channels in English and Mandarin produced by its subsidiary Aomen TV to France-based Dailymotion's Web video site. Article

> Video-on-demand operator FilmFlex Movies has hired former ITV exec Jeff Henry as chief executive. Henry will oversee strategy and management at the company, which is a joint venture between Sony Pictures Television and The Walt Disney Company. Article

> After a botched first attempt at social media that caused some users to become logged into the wrong accounts, Hulu has relaunched its Facebook integration. Article

> Envivio announced the hiring of Matt Smith as vice president of Internet Television. In this role, Smith will work closely with premier customers, technology partners and content delivery network partners, to ensure that key digital media strategies are brought to market quickly and successfully. Release

And finally... A Pennsylvania restaurant has decided to ban kids because their parents won't help keep them under control. Article

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> eBook: OTT Delivery: An Online Video Revolution That Changed TV Forever

This eBook from FierceOnlineVideo, will look at which segment stands to benefit the most from this new delivery vehicle, and which stands to lose, as the nascent video revolution marches forward.Click here to download today.

> New Fierce eBook: Cashing in on the Cloud Services Opportunity

This eBook from FierceTelecom we will explore the trends, benefits and challenges service providers have in building a profitable cloud service business.Click here to download today.

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